🌎 Macro#2) UN Suggest Our Population Will Keep Increasing Until 2100
In Contradiction to Elon's Warning
The United Nations population projections recently came out.
They forecasted that the world’s population would be 8 billion by November 2022 and grow to around 10.74 billion by 2100.
This forecast largely contradicts Elon Musk’s tweets about the greatest threat to humanity.
Does Elon have ground? Or is he just trying to justify the number of kids he has with multiple partners?
The UN Prospects
The UN Prospects for Population report is prepared based on the member states' information and other sources, including UN agencies, international organizations, and academic institutions.
The UN aims to provide a consistent set of assumptions and methods for estimating future population size and structure. Their first population projections were released in July 2002, including estimates for 2050–2100.
Projections for Population
The population projections provided by the UN are based on various past and present patterns, including demographic, economic, and social trends.
The projection scenarios range from high growth rates with an increase from today’s 7.7 billion people to 10 billion by 2100 (scenario A1) to meager growth rates with little change from today’s levels at 8 billion people throughout 2100 (scenario B1).
Estimates for the human population and growth rate:
The United Nations estimates that by the end of 2022, there will be 8 billion people on Earth
By 2050, the UN estimates that there will be 9.7 billion people on Earth
By 2100, they predict there will be 10.4 billion people on Earth (a net gain of 900 million).
Therefore, the UN does not think our population will ever peak in the next 80 years.
The new report provides a vivid picture of how Africa’s and Asia’s populations will grow over time, with some countries experiencing significant increases in their youth populations (those aged 15 to 24) while others continue to see a decline or stagnation in this age group.
Just look at the light blue and pink lines! Their growth is astonishing.
More than just birth rates
The main factors affecting population projections are fertility, mortality, and migration. Therefore, these three factors are usually combined in a model to calculate the number of births and deaths for each country.
Fertility Rates:
The average number of births per 1000 individuals per year is called the total fertility rate (TFR). A TFR of 2.1 children per woman is the replacement level needed to keep a population stable without migration or other factors influencing it.
In 1950 the fertility rate was at 5.0; by 2022, it has declined significantly to 2.3 and is expected to decline further to 2.1 by the year 2050.
It seems that the world will reach in conjunction with high-income countries.
However, this is the data that seems to be contradicting Elon’s thinking. If Japan, Spain, Italy, or South Korea are as low as 1.3 births per woman, why should we estimate that the fertility rate will not drop even further?
China is lower at 1.1 births per woman! If birth rates decline even further, it is correct to think that the population will collapse.
Mortality Rates:
Mortality rates measure how many people die per thousand individuals in a given year; this means that mortality rate directly affects both birth rate (because more babies will be born if fewer older people die) and age structure (because it determines where those babies come from).
If there are more elderly living past 65 years old, then we see an increase in life expectancy at birth. According to the report, the mortality rate is likely to go up from 67 million annual deaths to about 97 million annual deaths by 2050.
Migration:
Worldwide migration has become a significant part of populace change in some areas.
During 1980–2000, population increase in high-salary nations was mostly because of the standard increment rather than migration(104 million).
For high-salary nations between 2000 and 2020, the commitment of global migration to populace development (net inflow of 80.5 million) surpassed the equilibrium of births over passings (66.2 million).
For the following couple of years, migration will be the sole driver of populace development in high-income nations, as the number of passings will logically surpass the number of births.
High-income countries need migration!
Which Countries are Growing?
Despite the population growth, only a few nations are expected to shoulder the increase over the next 40 years:
India, Pakistan, Nigeria, D.R Congo, Egypt, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Philippines
These 3 nations are projected to add more than a billion people.
India is projected to add 700 million people
Philippines should add 240 million more people
Nigeria’s population will add 200 million more people
The UN projects that India will become the world’s most populous country by 2022, overtaking China which has held this position for more than 35 years.
Which Countries are Shrinking?
The majority of countries will see a decrease. Below are some of the countries that are expected to see their people shrink over the next seven years:
China (300 million fewer people)
Japan (23 million fewer people)
Russia (22 million fewer people)
Switzerland (7 million fewer people)
Singapore (3 million fewer people)
South Korea (1.9 million fewer people)
Other countries listed as shrinking include Taiwan, Norway and Sweden, Finland and Denmark, and Australia/New Zealand.
Implications
The UN expects a world population of 10.4 billion by 2100, up from 7.9 billion today, but the report also says that “there is substantial uncertainty about the future course of demographic change.”
Any slight changes in the birth rate, fertility rate, and mortality rate bring considerable disparities in the population projections. So far, the UN still thinks we will have our population keep increasing, which poses two main risks.
Overpopulation: This is one of the biggest threats to our planet. The more people there are, the more resources they use up and the more pollution they produce. This can lead to water scarcity and food scarcity. It also poses the threat of poverty since a rise in population results in several problems such as unemployment and inflation.
Climate Change: Climate change has its roots in human activities like burning fossil fuels or deforestation (clearing land for agriculture).
But is this the case?
These numbers have grave meaning because it skews the general population's mindset and policies. For example, Elon thinks we need more babies, while the consensus believes overpopulation is a serious problem, and people think they should adopt rather than give birth.
What do you think of these numbers? Where do you stand on overpopulation? Do we seem to have a problem, or are we headed to underpopulation?
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